August 19, 2022

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MLB playoff push: Blue Jays cannot afford to chill down in wild card race

Wednesday’s loss to Tampa Bay escalated from disappointing to dramatic with a single pitch when Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ryan Borucki hit Rays batter Kevin Kiermaier sq. within the again with an eighth-inning fastball, breathing new life into “cardgate.”

While tempers flared on the diamond with a number of heated exchanges between managers, gamers, and umpires, tensions rose within the playoff standings.

The Rays’ decisive 7-1 victory noticed them clinch a playoff berth that for them was by no means doubtful, whereas the Blue Jays completed Wednesday outdoors the playoff image after watching the New York Yankees defeat the Texas Rangers to quickly break the 2 groups’ tie and seize sole possession of the American League’s second wild card spot.

After a red-hot September that noticed Toronto’s offence propel it into the post-season image, the membership’s playoff pursuit has been barely cooled thanks to 2 losses to the Rays. Thursday brings a contemporary four-game sequence towards the Minnesota Twins and a chance to fireplace up the offence as soon as once more.

Here’s a better take a look at the place issues stand within the MLB playoff image…

If the playoffs started in the present day
The prime groups in every division make the playoffs. In addition to the six division winners, the highest remaining two groups per league qualify as wild playing cards for a complete of 10 playoff groups.

The wild card groups in every league face off in winner-take-all video games for the prospect to advance to the LDS towards the highest seeded division winner. Meanwhile, the remaining two division winners match up towards each other in every league.

If the post-season started in the present day, these 5 American League groups would qualify:

Wild-card recreation: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays (x) vs. winner of untamed card recreation
No. 2 Houston Astros vs. No. 3 Chicago White Sox

And these 5 National League groups would qualify:

Wild-card recreation: Los Angeles Dodgers (x) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No. 1 San Francisco Giants (x) vs. winner of untamed card recreation
No. 2 Milwaukee Brewers (x) vs. No. 3 Atlanta Braves

(*x = playoff berth clinched)

In placing distance
In the American League, their sequence loss to the Rays means the Blue Jays are not within the post-season window however reasonably simply outdoors of it, going from being up on the Yankees for the second wild-card spot heading into Wednesday’s motion to being one win again of New York by evening’s finish. The Red Sox are two video games up on New York, in the meantime, giving them a little bit little bit of respiratory room in that first wild card spot.

Behind the Blue Jays are the 83-69 Seattle Mariners, who aren’t out of the working however are 2.5 video games behind New York.

Meanwhile, the National League is wanting rather more locked up with three groups having formally booked their playoff tickets. The Cincinnati Reds are the closest to the ultimate (and solely) wild card spot obtainable with a file of 78-74, however hope is dwindling as they’re 4.5 video games again of St. Louis. The identical applies to the Philadelphia Phillies, whose equivalent file and win proportion (.513) has them nonetheless alive — barely! — on this race.

Playoff odds report
Objectively talking, this is the place the Blue Jays stand in relation to their closest adversaries, in accordance with FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference:

Blue Jays’ FanGraphs odds: 51.4% | Blue Jays’ Baseball-Reference odds: 68.5%

Yankees’ FanGraphs odds: 49.4% | Yankees’ Baseball-Reference odds: 33.1%

Red Sox FanGraphs odds: 96.2% | Red Sox Baseball-Reference odds: 94.3%

Next up
The Blue Jays will look to bounce again from their first sequence loss in a month after they ship Steven Matz to the mound to open up a four-game stint in Minnesota whereas the Twins counter with Michael Pineda. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox embark on a three-game sequence Friday, which we’ll all be watching carefully.

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